Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.

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Nov 12, Phil rated it it was ok. Your email address will not be published.

This was not inaccurate, just misleading. He puts forward some very compelling information about various medical areas mammograms, AIDS testing, prost Really fascinating book that has changed how I think about medicine. AmazonGlobal Ship Orders Internationally.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You – Gerd Gigerenzer – Google Books

The author gives some very clear illustrations on how statistics can be used to mislead but more importantly, gives examples of how to present data more clearly as well as how to avoid being mislead. Researchers and marketers of diagnostic tests are generally woefully maybe willfully?

Any symptom or evidence comes with certain degree gerrd uncertainty and evaluating that uncertainty is a crucial step towards conclusion.

This chapter was an eye-opener.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

And the result showed that out of one hundred who took drug A, 6 patients were cured. Human minds are not adapted to probability My library Help Advanced Book Search. Top Reviews Most recent Top Reviews. In medicine and the law, clouded understanding of gerv and probabilities leads to serious negative consequences.

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Often, the figure they quote represents the likelihood that, out of 1 million people, 1 person will be a match. Return to Book Page. But also scary and far more likely is that the test could calxulated that cancer is present when it is not.?


Gigerenzer gives a detailed analysis of each of these steps leading from a DNA match to the proof of the guilt or innocence of the defendant. Share your thoughts with other customers. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. Alexa Actionable Analytics for the Web. Yes, important stuff and this book exhaustively and minutely explores these errors in risk calculation calculatwd communication.

It suggests that instead of using percentages when talking about probabilities we should be using natural frequencies which are easier for us to understand and remember and also which usually represent the truth instead of leading the reader of those statistics astray by accident or by intentional deception.

Amazon Advertising Find, attract, and engage customers. Please try again later. Everyone who is exposed to marketing claims, medical statistics, and Gugerenzer must read this! What other items do customers buy after viewing this item?

Click here for instructions on how to enable JavaScript in your browser. Hurricanes have not increased: Frequently, he reiterated many points from early in the book in later chapters.

Get to Know Us. However, the probability that a person who tests positive for the virus actually has the virus is a separate number altogether, and is utterly distinct from the previous one.

Well thanks for joining us, SciAm article authors, better late than never! If the base rate probability of breast cancer is 0. A critic of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, he argues that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identical to the rules of formal logic or the probability calculus.


Thus, 8 out of every 1, women have breast cancer. Gigerenzer deftly intersperses math lessons explaining concepts like frequency and risk in layperson’s terms with real-life stories involving doctors and detectives. Amazon Second Chance Pass it on, trade it in, give it a second life.

To answer the question requires a tool called Bayes Rule.? Apr 08, Pyoungsung Choi rated it it was amazing. Calculatev are all sorts of things that can generate a false positive result.

In actuality, Quick summary: Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer riwks no Kindle device required. The author argues, howev Although we are living in the era of so-called “big data”, most people are still surprisingly incapable of understanding uncertainties in their situations and making decisions out of it. Statistician to the Stars! Jun 07, Dick Hamilton rated it really liked it. Learn more about Amazon Giveaway. I especially liked the chapters on better calculatev to explain likelihood in unit terms instead of relative percentage chances, which can be highly misleading and inflammatory.

He puts forward some very compelling information about various medical areas mammograms, AIDS testing, prostate exams – and how there isn’t as much certainty in these tests as we are lead to believe. When an uncertain result is presented as certain, dramatic and unfortunate outcomes can be a riskw, and the book talks at length about a few such examples. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.